AI Helps Spread Chinas “TechnoAuthoritarianism”
Every new technology has its doubts.
In 1911, a few years before the start of the First World War, Sir William Gustavus Nicholson, Commander-in-Chief of the British Army, said:
Oops, he was wrong.
At the end of the war, Britain had a new Royal Air Force with 22,000 aircraft. A century later, commercial aviation is an $800 billion industry.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the new technology on everyone's mind these days. In my recent World Macro Update interview, which you can see below, I spoke with former US Army Ranger Paul Schar about the dark potential of artificial intelligence.
Paul is executive vice president of the Center for a New American Security. He has written two books including Four Battlefields; Power in the age of artificial intelligence . He previously served in various capacities in Iraq and Afghanistan and led the Department of Defense in developing the Department of Defense's weapons system autonomy policy.
Paul expressed his concerns about AI compared to other countries such as China, which is already using AI-based facial recognition to increase public surveillance on a large scale. Many of you are familiar with China's domestic surveillance and censorship practices . Paul sees the Chinese Communist Party extending control of China's internet into its physical territory. This is only possible with artificial intelligence.
The scariest aspect that most Americans don't see is the way China is exporting what Paul calls a new model of "techno-authoritarianism" to other countries like Tanzania and Uganda. And, perhaps worse, China is exporting physical technological infrastructure to some of our allies.
We are not directly at war with China and, as Paul says, we are not yet "technically" in the AI arms race... The US Department of Defense spends less than 1% of its $842 billion budget dollars in AI.
I hope things change.
The U.S. government's role in leading technologies is twofold. On the one hand, government agencies like the Department of Defense are large, cumbersome, and resistant to change. Outdated rules and procedures are not adequate innovations. And as Paul explained in our interview, many military personnel, like private sector workers, fear losing their jobs to AI. (I can't say this enough: all this fear of losing your job is too much).
On the other hand, the scale of geopolitical conflicts is higher than in the past. And hopefully wars or preparations for war never happen; can accelerate technological change. Let's go back to the airplanes of World War II... or the home microwave oven that emerged from advances in radar technology in World War II... or the GPS we got from massive government spending during the Cold War.
The Department of Defense has a big checkbook. If there is a precedent in the US-China dynamic, it is that between the United States and Russia during the Cold War. Yes, there is a difference. However, a common theme in the coming years will be increased government spending on new technologies, which today means artificial intelligence. And most of these funds will go to private sector government contractors.
Before concluding the interview, I would like to point out that I think artificial intelligence will have a positive impact on humanity. Like anything else, this comes with risks and disadvantages. Ultimately, though, my focus is on business opportunities and the investments they create, and there are many.
I look forward to sharing more with you this Wednesday in a special video briefing that the Macro team and I are conducting. You'll learn important details about the specific opportunities we're looking for and new projects we're working on.
This project comes at an important time for Mauldin Economics and our readers. This is the culmination of our work over the last ten years and I want to include you all. Check my inbox for more from me on Wednesday, January 17th.
For now, check out my full interview with Paul Scharr at the top of the page. You'll learn about the rise of Chinese-style techno-authoritarianism in more than 80 countries, U.S. vulnerabilities in places like the Panama Canal, the role of artificial intelligence in warfare, and the problems of TikTok.
You can read the transcript of the interview by clicking here.
Best regards,
Ed D'Agostino
Editor and director:
You can follow me here:
If you would like to listen to the global macro update , you can do so here:
