With 2023 almost over, our tech researchers are starting to look at how technology will impact our world in the new year. I usually write articles about technology predictions for the coming years, but this year I want to take a step aside and look at three big fears about how technology will affect our lives in 2024.
Before I share my list of fears, I should mention that technology in general is embedded in the lives of billions of people. When I started working in technology in 1981, I aimed primarily at a professional audience. Then, in 1991, we saw a shift, and computers began to enter the consumer and education markets in a big way. However, two technologies introduced in the 2000s brought the technology to a wider global audience. The first was social networks. It all started with MySpace, launched in 2003, and then gained momentum when Facebook entered the market in 2004. Today, billions of people around the world use various social networks, and technology is an intricate part of most people's lives.
The smartphone is the second product that connects technology to billions of people. Although the first cell phones were introduced at the beginning of the last century, it was the introduction of the iPhone by Apple in 2007 that accelerated the interest and growth of the cell phone hockey stick. As such, technology has entered our lives in many ways and, for many, is integrated into much of what people do today.
The good news is that technology in general has a positive impact on our world, be it business, education, communications, entertainment, etc.
However, we know that technological tools and websites have been used for many malicious, provocative and illegal purposes. As professional researchers of technology, we must consider the positive and negative aspects of technology and now proceed with our work.
As we enter a new year, technology will become even more important to people around the world. The good news is that AI will continue to gain momentum and become more relevant to businesses, educators and consumers. It will also return to VR inclusion next year, the last one.
But I am very concerned about the impact technology will have on our lives in the new year.
My first fear is the role technology, especially social media, will play in the 2024 US election. We already know how it affected our 2020 election, but since then new technologies have been introduced that could be even more disruptive for future elections. such as in-depth monitoring that can lead the public to push an agenda or smear campaigns. I have nightmares that deepfakes can be used for the most sinister purposes, including election campaigning.
Social media may be being used in ways we can't yet imagine. Elon Musk has given carte blanche to famous conspiracy theorists and fired thousands of people whose job it was to monitor X's content. Meanwhile, Facebook and other social media companies are increasing their surveillance of all sites, from illegal ones to those that use dangerous rhetoric. But with social media overflowing with political content and beliefs, they'll need help preventing comments that violate their rules, especially as we approach Election Day in November 2024.
The second technology fear concerns the use of artificial intelligence in social media next year. While this fear extends beyond 2024, it will be even more critical in the next election year. Using tools like ChatGPT, it is possible to create a lot of high-quality political content to promote any political opinion, smear a candidate, etc.
Current AI technology has minimal safeguards to prevent it from being used for good or bad purposes in elections. I suspect that much of the AI content will be generated as part of the election process, and that much of it may be legitimate and/or deliberate disinformation.
I still have one technological fear heading into the new year: the role that the US Congress will not play in 2024. As you know, Congress is so divided and somewhat paralyzed that last year's legislative success was minimal.
Some of these legislative decisions dealt with artificial intelligence, many of which will be used to monitor and improve the safety of its use in the United States and around the world. Congress has passed very little AI-related legislation, and there is next to no chance of significant AI legislation being passed before the next election. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and dozens of seats in the Senate are up for election in 2024. That means these lawmakers will be focused on re-election next November, as well as dealing with the global conflict in Ukraine, Israel and Gaza elsewhere.
In my conversations with insiders I know in Washington, they believe Congress will remain paralyzed and any major AI-related legislation will be delayed until next year. This means that the role and impact of AI in future elections may be entirely exempt from US regulation, giving those using AI for political purposes little guidance on how to use AI in next year's US elections.
Other technological issues may also be problematic, such as cryptocurrency investment, the real importance and impact of blockchain, and others that may become more challenging technologies in 2024. But one thing I predict is that if the three problems mentioned above become a reality in 2024, technology will take a serious hit and will have more black eyes in the eyes of the world than in 2023 with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. and Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX crypto fiasco.
I expect to see more positive tech news next year in terms of new technological advancements and the shift to AI-based computing, which could boost PC demand again next year. But by 2024 I foresee a mixed situation related to my three big technological challenges.
